Ohio State travels to Penn State to try and upset the Nittany Lions in wrestling. No one has beaten Penn State in over six years, but the 2026 Buckeyesare the single biggest threat they're faced in that time span. If the Buckeyes were to take down the Nittany Lions, what would it look like?
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First, let's point out what's needed to win. If no one gets bonus points, then winning six of the ten weight classes is a team win. The Buckeyes can't count on keeping Penn State out of the bonus points, especially in the Nittany Lions' stronger weight classes. But Ohio State has one or two chances at bonus points itself, and maybe the Buckeyes can limit Penn State somewhat. That's the beginning of the path: win six matches, and don't give up too many bonus points in the other four. So, how do we find six winnable matches for the Buckeyes? Let's look at them:
Upsets not required: 125, 133, 141, and heavyweight
Jesse Mendez should be the outright favorite at 141 lbs, and he should be hoping for bonus points to help the team. The same is true of Nick Feldman, though it's a little less likely to expect bonus points against Cole Mirasola. 141 is Ohio State's best weight class, and those two are Penn State's weakest. Losing either of those two means a bad night for the Buckeyes.
The matchups at 125 and 133 lbs are both basically toss-ups. Nic Bouzakis and Luke Lilledahl are both undefeated on the season and ranked No.1 and No.2. This is quite possibly a preview for the first of three matchups between the pair--expect to see these two square off in both the Big Ten final and the NCAA Championships final. The same is possibly true of Ben Davino vs Marcus Blaze. Both of those are also undefeated this year, and this will be their first official meeting since high school (they've faced off in international trials and other amateur competitions).
It's also worth noting that Lilledahl was pinned by Brendan McCrone in this match last season. McCrone is still on Ohio State's roster at 125 lbs, but he's been moved to the backup spot because of Bouzakis' success at 125 lbs this year.
Where to find two more wins?
Now comes the hard part. Are there two more possible wins for the Buckeyes on this roster? The simple answer is... it's hard to see one. 157 lbs was expected to be a real shot, as the Buckeyes have the #1 wrestler in Brandon Cannon. However, Cannon hasn't wrestled in three weeks and was not listed as a probable in Ohio State's official preview. The Buckeyes don't have many great options at that weight class. Honestly, the coaches are probably worrying more about avoiding conceding bonus points than thinking about who on the roster can beat PJ Duke.
165 lbs is another danger spot for Ohio State. Paddy Gallagher is a solid enough wrestler who can probably win a few matches in the NCAAs, but it would be an unthinkable upset for him to take out Mitchell Mesenbrink.
Those are the two weakest weight classes on the sheet for the Buckeyes. They have solid contenders at the final four classes. The problem for pulling off an upset is that Penn State has the No.1 wrestler in the country in every one of those weight classes. Not all No. 1s are the same, though, and it wouldn't be so stunning if the Buckeyes could pull upsets in 149 or 174 lbs. And, of course, a win at 184 lbs would feel pretty sweet, considering that No. 1 Rocco Welsh competed for the Buckeyes in 2024 (he actually reached the final of the NCAA Championships as a freshman) before redshirting last year then transferring.
So, what are the odds of an upset? Not so high. It would probably take six wins, and not giving up too many bonus points in the four losses (or getting some bonus points of their own to make up for it). But none of the four likelier wins for the Buckeyes are locks, and getting even one more would be a pretty sizable upset.
For the first time in years, you can't assume Penn State will win a match before they even take the mat. That's a major milestone in itself. Actually pulling off the upset won't be easy or likely––but it's definitely not impossible.
This article originally appeared on Buckeyes Wire: Ohio State vs Penn State wrestling preview: how the Buckeyes can win
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